STAT 2010 NFL Game Reports
Accept no substitutes.
Jacksonville vs Cleveland, Jan 3rd, 2010 
Whether you are simply looking for solid NFL picks versus the spread each week. Or, advanced team stats, charts and trends that can complement your own methods: STAT 2010-generated Game Reports from Armchair Analysis.com will provide you with the wagering-orientated analysis that you need to succeed versus the line.
Covering over 700 different variables per game, 15 different charts, and 126 winning NFL trends — spread across 5 information-packed pages — it's an Excel spreadsheet on steroids that analyzes team skill levels and the associated perceptions of team strength held by the typical bettor, from every direction imaginable.
The bottom line is this: The point spread can be beaten with regularity and this one-of-a-kind handicapping software package will show you how.
Here is what you will find contained within each report:
Page 1: Rosters
No NFL game report would be complete with-out a detailed assessment of team rosters, with an eye towards evaluating current injury levels and their impact on a team's chances in the upcoming week.
Age, weight, height, years experience and opening day status (ODS) are listed for both 1st and 2nd team players. Key averages for defensive/offensive units are provided as well.
Rounding things out are unit-specific (i.e., Defensive Backs, Linebackers, Offensive Line) injury ratings that consider both the amount, and severity, of injuries to the active roster along with players that have been relegated to 3rd team status or injured reserve at any point in the season.
The Roster page is updated each Saturday morning during the season after data from the latest injury reports and team depth charts has been entered.
Page 2: Matchups
For handicappers looking to quickly assess how teams matchup with each other in almost 200 different categories — this is the page for you
A total of 193 key variables are covered and arranged neatly into 13 different sections: Team Strategy; Situational; Passing Game; Rushing Game; Penalties; Player Age, Height, Weight, Experience, Speed and Strength; Special Teams; Injuries.
The total number of categories in which teams rank higher than their opponent are tabulated for 12 of the 13 sections and 'traffic lights' help to quickly reveal potential mismatches and areas of weakness and strength for both teams.
Page 3: Game Logs
Studying the ups and downs all teams experience during the course of the season through the analysis of 'game logs' is an important aspect of spread handicapping and Page 3 helps to accomplish this task by clearly laying out game history right from Week 1.
42 different variables are covered, including: key game stats such as time-of-possession and yards gained in each contest; team momentum (TMI's) and rushing/passing strength in recent games (ROF, RDE, POF, PDE), as well as an up-to-date assessment of both strength-of-victory (SOV) and strength-of-schedule (SOS) for the entire season.
Perhaps most importantly, the amount and severity of injuries that teams were experiencing prior to each game — for 7 distinct positions and units — are also listed, allowing bettors to better establish who was hurting and when, as well as revealing significant changes, both up and down, to team injury levels from game-to-game.
Page 4: Charts
Spending the week leading up to a game staring at endless tables of data is enough to put even the most devoted NFL handicapper off the task at hand.
Sometimes, data is simply better served when presented as a chart or graph and there are 15 examples of this on Page 4.
Using data taken from the Game Logs page, the Charts page displays season-to-date trends for some of the most important indicators of team play that have been proven to be a valuable aid in the prediction of spread outcomes.
Team Rushing and Passing ratings (ROF, RDE, POF, PDE); Team Momentum Indicators (TMI); Straight-up Win % (WP) versus Pythagorean Win % (PWP); Average Spread (SPR) versus Average Straight-up Margin (SUM) along with charts covering Turnover Differential's (TOD) for each team and Injury levels at key positions are all provided.
Of particular interest is the chart showing Pythagorean Win % in comparison with SU Win %. Teams with a solid line that moves above the dotted one are essentially over-achievers while the reverse indicates those teams who have under-achieved with regards to their won/loss record.
The 2 charts involving the Average Spread (SPR) a team has faced season-to-date along with their corresponding Straight-Up Margin (which is the average margin of victory) are also quite useful and provide an illustration of how accurate Vegas' line has been. As with the WP/PWP graph, a solid line that moves above the dotted one indicates a team that is performing better-than-expected (versus the spread in this case) while a solid line below the SUM line tells us this team has been performing below the public's expectations.
Its Technical Analysis in its purest form and this page marks the beginning of yet another line of attack in my quest for consistent methodologies versus the spread.
Page 5: Trends (not included with free online reports)
The Trends page is where the STAT handicapping tool truly shows it's power, through the tracking and analysis of all active situational trends that happen to be present in each game. And, the calculation of accurate confidence percentages that quickly reveal if either side happens to be a good play versus the Vegas line.
Based on the dozens of 'stock' trends and situations that come with the program along with dozens more that you yourself can research and track: this page is the perfect answer for handicappers that enjoy the weekly game reports. But, would perhaps benefit from some assistance on evaluating and making sense of the extensive data that they provide and how it all relates to the point-spread.
This page is not something that can be easily described in 1-2 paragraphs and those who want more information are encouraged to download the trial version of STAT 2010 which contains a detailed help-file covering this key page.
For more information on many of the abbreviations used in these reports, please consult the tables below.
| Rosters Page | |
| HGT | Height (Inches) |
| WGT | Weight (Lbs) |
| EXP | Experience (Years) |
| ODS | Opening Day Status (1st/2nd/3rd Team) |
| INJURY | Description - (Probable/Questionable/Doubtful/Out/Injured Reserve) |
| Matchups Page - Strategy Category (F: For) | |
| 0 Bars: 27th - 32nd 1 Bar: 21st - 26th 2 Bars: 13th - 20th 3 Bars: 7th - 12th 4 Bars: 1st - 6th |
|
| RP% | Rushing Play % |
| TDR% | Rushing Touchdown % |
| TDP% | Passing Touchdown % |
| LE% | Left End %Attempts |
| MD% | Middle Rush %Attempts |
| RE% | Right End %Attempts |
| 1DR% | 1st Down Rush %Plays |
| 2DR% | 2nd Down Rush %Plays |
| 3DR% | 3rd Down Rush %Plays |
| QBR% | Quarterback Rush % |
| SL% | Short Left Pass %Attempts |
| SM% | Short Middle Pass %Attempts |
| SR% | Short Right Pass %Attempts |
| DL% | Deep Left Pass %Attempts |
| DM% | Deep Middle Pass %Attempts |
| DR% | Deep Right Pass %Attempts |
| WR1% | Wide Receiver 1-2 %Attempts |
| WR3% | Wide Receiver 3-5 %Attempts |
| TE% | Tight End %Attempts |
| RBP% | Running Back Pass %Attempts |
| SG% | Shot-gun %Plays |
| Q1R% | 1st Quarter Rush %Plays |
| LBS% | Linebacker %Sacks |
| DBS% | Defensive Back %Sacks |
| Matchups Page - Situational Category (F: For, A: Against) | |
| Red: 23rd - 32nd Yellow: 11th - 22nd Green: 1st - 10th |
|
| RZC% | Red Zone Conversion % |
| LC% | Late-Close %Plays * |
| RSR | Rushing Situation Rush Rating * |
| RSP | Rushing Situation Pass Rating * |
| PSR | Passing Situation Rush Rating * |
| PSP | Passing Situation Pass Rating * |
| S3C% | 3rd Down Short Yardage Conv% * |
| L3C% | 3rd Down and Long Conv% * |
| Matchups Page - Passing Game Category (F: For, A: Against) | |
| Red: 23rd - 32nd Yellow: 11th - 22nd Green: 1st - 10th |
|
| BPY% | Big Pass Yardage % * |
| SPP% | Successful Passing Play % * |
| SEAS POF | Pass Offense Rating - Season |
| SEAS PDE | Pass Defense Rating - Season |
| L3 POF | Pass Offense Rating - Last 3 |
| L3 PDE | Pass Defense Rating - Last 3 |
| SL | Short Left Pass Rating |
| SM | Short Middle Pass Rating |
| SR | Short Right Pass Rating |
| DL | Deep Left Pass Rating |
| DM | Deep Middle Pass Rating |
| DR | Deep Right Pass Rating |
| WR1 | Wide Receiver 1-2 Pass Rating |
| WR3 | Wide Receiver 3-5 Pass Rating |
| TE | Tight End Pass Rating |
| RBP | Running Back Pass Rating |
| SG | Shot-gun Rating |
| 1DP | 1st Down Pass Rating |
| 2DP | 2nd Down Pass Rating |
| 3DP | 3rd Down Pass Rating |
| Q1P | 1st Quarter Pass Rating |
| LCP | Late-Close Pass Rating |
| RZP | Red Zone Pass Rating |
| Matchups Page - Rushing Game Category (F: For, A: Against) | |
| Red: 23rd - 32nd Yellow: 11th - 22nd Green: 1st - 10th |
|
| BRY% | Big Rush Yardage % * |
| SRP% | Successful Rushing Play % * |
| SEAS ROF | Rush Offense Rating - Season |
| SEAS RDE | Rush Defense Rating - Season |
| L3 ROF | Rush Offense Rating - Last 3 |
| L3 RDE | Rush Defense Rating - Last 3 |
| LE | Left End Rush Rating |
| MD | Middle Rush Rating |
| RE | Right End Rush Rating |
| 1DR | 1st Down Rush Rating |
| 2DR | 2nd Down Rush Rating |
| 3DR | 3rd Down Rush Rating |
| QBR | Quarterback Rush Rating |
| Q1R | 1st Quarter Rush Rating |
| LCR | Late-Close Rush Rating |
| RZR | Red Zone Rush Rating |
| Matchups Page - Penalties Category (A: Against, O: On Opp) | |
| Red: 23rd - 32nd Yellow: 11th - 22nd Green: 1st - 10th |
|
| FSP | False Start Penalties per Game * |
| OHP | Offensive Holding Penalties per Game * |
| PBEP | Play Book Execution Penalties per Game * |
| DLP | Defensive Line Penalties per Game * |
| DSP | Defensive Secondary Penalties per Game * |
| DMP | Dumb Penalties per Game * |
| Matchups Page - Special Teams Category (F: For, A: Against) | |
| Red: 23rd - 32nd Yellow: 11th - 22nd Green: 1st - 10th |
|
| GPY | Gross Punt Yardage Average |
| PRY | Punt Return Yardage Average |
| KRY | Kick-Off Return Yardage Average |
| SFP | Starting Field Position Average |
| NPY | Net Punt Yardage Average |
| TB% | Punt Touchback % |
| I20% | Punt Inside 20 % |
| RTD% | Punt/Kick-Off Return TD % |
| Game Logs Page | |
| OP | Opponent |
| HA | Home / Away |
| PF | Points For |
| PA | Points Against |
| SPR | Spread |
| 4QPF | 4th Quarter Points For |
| 4QPA | 4th Quarter Points Against |
| LSC | Last Score * |
| RYF | Rushing Yards For |
| RYA | Rushing Yards Against |
| PYF | Passing Yards For |
| PYA | Passing Yards Against |
| TOD | Turnover Differential |
| REYF | Return Yardage For (Punts + KO's) |
| REYA | Return Yardage Against (Punts + KO's) |
| PEYF | Penalty Yardage For (called on Opponent) |
| PEYA | Penalty Yardage Against |
| TOPF | Time of Possession For |
| TOPA | Time of Possession Against |
| SUW | Straight-Up Wins |
| SUL | Straight-Up Losses |
| ATSW | ATS Wins |
| ATSL | ATS Losses |
| SOV | Strength of Victory * |
| SOS | Strength of Schedule * |
| DVP | Division Place (1 - 4) |
| TMI | Team Momentum Indicator * |
| SUM | Straight-Up Margin Average |
| TOD | Turnover Differential |
| L3 ROF | Rush Offense Rating - Last 3 |
| L3 RDE | Rush Defense Rating - Last 3 |
| L3 POF | Pass Offense Rating - Last 3 |
| L3 PDE | Pass Defense Rating - Last 3 |
| QB | Quarterback Injury Rating |
| RB | Running Back Injury Rating |
| REC | Receiver (TE + WR) Injury Rating |
| OL | Offensive Linemen Injury Rating |
| DL | Defensive Linemen Injury Rating |
| LB | Linebacker Injury Rating |
| DB | Defensive Back Injury Rating |
| TOT | Injury Total |
| CHGE | Injury Total Change (This week to last) |
| * More information is available from within the STAT 2010 program. Notes: Ratings typically have a value between -3 and +3 (negative always indicates below average skill levels). All ratings take into account the strength of opponents faced in the particular area that is being assessed as well as the specific situation that the yards were attained (or surrendered) in. | |
